OngoingProject

Macroeconomic Impacts of Coal to Renewable Energy Transition

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Macroeconomic Impacts of Coal to Renewable Energy Transition

Coal has been a cornerstone of India’s energy and industrial landscape, fuelling growth, employment, and fiscal revenues for decades. As India sets its sights on achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2070, the role of coal is being reevaluated. However, phasing down coal must be planned strategically to avoid disruptions in electricity supply, economic activity, and livelihoods.

India’s energy demand is poised to surge, driven by manufacturing corridors, AI and data centers, rural electrification, and urban expansion. Simultaneously, large-scale investments are planned in renewables, green hydrogen, nuclear, and advanced thermal technologies. At this juncture of moving towards an attainment of Viksit Bharat and Net Zero Goals of India, a comprehensive transition policy for coal is required, balancing energy security, economic development, and environmental sustainability.

Outreach

Objectives

To understand the socio-economic impacts of mine closure and develop people-centric closure strategies that inform policy and practice in India’s coal-to-renewables transition.

Model India’s long-term thermal coal demand trajectory

Estimate electricity and capacity needs to 2070

Evaluate feasibility of high-renewable, coal-supportive pathways

Assess emerging economic and technology-driven electricity loads

Methodology

The study applies a scenario-based macro–energy model that links sectoral GDP projections to electricity demand and coal requirements up to 2070, starting from a 2047 baseline and extending it with alternative efficiency and generation-mix pathways. It combines different coal shares and efficiency improvements, while using bottom‑up checks for emerging loads such as EVs, data centres and domestic electrification to validate and refine the long‑term projections.

Working Papers: